Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~99% probability for Anna Kubareva at 1.01.
• • Our model estimate 55% yields a large negative EV (-0.4445) at current odds.

Pros

• + If the market truly knows unreported information (injury/withdrawal), the price would be justified — low uncertainty from the market perspective.
• + Extreme favorite price limits variance on a small stake if a bettor still prefers to follow market.

Cons

• - Available data does not support a 99% win probability; pricing appears overstated.
• - Backing at 1.01 requires near-certain outcome to be profitable, which we do not see evidence for.

Details

We see an extreme market price for the home player (1.01, implied ~99.0%) that is not supported by the available player data. The two player profiles in research show near-identical career records and recent form (multiple recent losses) with no clear surface or injury advantage for the home player. Given the lack of firm evidence for a >99% true win chance, we estimate a far lower true probability (55%). At the current decimal 1.01 the break-even probability is ~99.01% (1/1.01). Using our 55% estimate, the expected return on backing Anna Kubareva at 1.01 is strongly negative (EV = 0.55*1.01 - 1 = -0.4445). Therefore there is no value on the heavy favorite at the posted prices; we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.01) implies ~99% win chance which is unrealistic given the data
• • Available player profiles show similar career records and recent poor form for both players
• • No reported injuries, H2H, or surface advantage in the research to justify the extreme favorite price
• • Small sample of recent results shows losses for both; no clear indicator of dominance