Anna Kubareva vs Hania Abouelsaad
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the away upset at 14.0 because Kubareva's documented poor form implies a higher upset probability than the market is pricing; EV ≈ +0.40 per unit staked.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implies only 7.14% for the away — we estimate ~10%
- • Positive expected value at current price: EV = +0.40
Pros
- + Large decimal price (14.0) produces meaningful EV even with a small upset probability
- + Kubareva's record and recent losses suggest she is beatable
Cons
- - No data provided for Hania Abouelsaad — increased uncertainty about true matchup strength
- - Market favorite priced at 1.02 could reflect information not in the supplied research (e.g., withdrawal, injury, walkover potential)
Details
We compare the bookmaker price (Away 14.0 => implied 7.14%) to our assessment of the upset chance based on the available data. Anna Kubareva's career record (10-21, ~32% career win rate) and the recent run shown in the profile indicate clear vulnerability and several recent losses on hard courts. The research contains no profile or form for Hania Abouelsaad, which increases uncertainty but also suggests the market may be overestimating Kubareva's certainty to win (home 1.02). Conservatively, we estimate Hania's chance of an upset around 10.0% (0.10). At decimal 14.0 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.10 * 14.0 - 1 = 0.40). Because the implied probability (7.14%) is materially lower than our estimated true probability (10%), the away price represents value. We are cautious because data on the opponent is missing and bookmakers may have additional information, but strictly from the supplied profile the underdog quote of 14.0 is large enough to offer value.
Key factors
- • Anna Kubareva's career record is weak (10-21) indicating vulnerability
- • Recent form shown in the profile includes multiple recent losses on hard courts
- • Current market price (Away 14.0) implies only a 7.14% chance — below our 10% estimate