Anna Kubareva vs Lorena Solar Donoso

Highlights

• • Home heavily favored by the market (1.337) but required win probability for +EV is very high (~74.7%)
• • Our assessment (62%) implies a negative ROI at current odds

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-count advantage for Kubareva
• + Both players' surfaces include the likely tournament surface, so matchup advantage is plausible

Cons

• - Recent form entries show losses for both players, adding uncertainty
• - Market price compresses value — needs an unusually high probability to be profitable

Details

We estimate Anna Kubareva is the stronger player based on career longevity (559-507) and much greater match experience versus Lorena Solar Donoso (10-21), and she should be favored on the relevant surfaces both have played. However, the market price (home 1.337) implies a >74.7% win probability to be +EV, while our assessed true probability for Kubareva is ~62%. At that estimate the bet would have a negative expected value, so we decline to recommend backing either side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior career win rate for Kubareva (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Both players have recent losses and limited high-level recent form, reducing confidence in extreme probability moves
• • Current market odds (home 1.337) require an implied win probability >74.7% to be +EV, which exceeds our estimate