Anna Kubareva vs Nada Fouad
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the away player (Nada Fouad) — the 8.0 price appears to be a clear mispricing relative to our estimated ~40% win probability, producing large positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies only 12.5% for the away at 8.0; our estimate is ~40%
- • Minimum fair odds given our model are ~2.50, well below the available 8.0
Pros
- + Very large mathematical edge if our probability estimate is correct (EV = +2.20)
- + Research provides no evidence to justify the market's extreme favorite pricing
Cons
- - Extreme market price disparity suggests the possibility of non-public information (withdrawal/illness) not present in the research
- - Single-match variance in tennis is high; even correct longshot estimates can lose frequently
Details
We find clear value on the away moneyline (Nada Fouad). The market-implied probabilities from the quoted prices are extremely skewed: home 1.05 implies ~95.2% and away 8.0 implies ~12.5%. The research shows both players have nearly identical career records (10-21), similar surfaces played (clay, hard) and comparable recent results; there is no research evidence supporting a 95% chance for the home player. Given the lack of injury or dominant form data in the research and near-identical profiles, we estimate the true win probability for the away player around 40%. At decimal 8.0 that produces EV = 0.40 * 8.0 - 1 = 2.20 (220% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal odds given our probability is 2.5, so any price above ~2.5 offers value; 8.0 is strongly value-priced. We note elevated model risk because the market price could reflect information not in the provided research (withdrawal, illness, administrative result), so the trade carries higher event-specific uncertainty.
Key factors
- • Both players have near-identical career records (10-21) and similar surfaces, implying a much closer matchup than the market price suggests
- • Current moneyline (home 1.05 / away 8.0) implies an implausible 95% chance for home with no supporting research evidence
- • No documented injuries, withdrawals, or head-to-head data in the provided research to justify extreme market skew—raises probability of bookmaker overpricing