Anna Laguza vs Rozalie Dohnalova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on Anna Laguza at 1.77 based on a conservative 58% win probability estimate, but the margin is slim and sensitive to new information.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability (58%) slightly above market break-even (~56.5%)
- • Positive but small EV (~2.7% ROI) at the quoted 1.77 price
Pros
- + Market price implies just-below-fair value; our conservative estimate finds a slight edge
- + Simple, transparent assumptions reduce risk of overfitting to non-existent data
Cons
- - Very limited/no match-specific data increases model risk — edge could evaporate with new info
- - Small EV means variance will dominate short-term results
Details
We have no external performance, surface, or injury data, so we apply a conservative, model-agnostic baseline and compare it to the market prices. The market implies probabilities of ~56.5% for Anna Laguza (1/1.77) and ~51.0% for Rozalie Dohnalova (1/1.96). Given the market favors the home player and absent disqualifying negative signals, we conservatively estimate Anna Laguza's true win probability at 58%. At the current decimal price of 1.77 this estimate yields a small positive edge (EV = 0.58 * 1.77 - 1 ≈ 0.027). The margin is modest, so the recommendation is conditional and conservative: we recommend the home side only because our estimated win probability exceeds the market-implied break-even probability by a small amount.
Key factors
- • No external/injury/form/H2H data available — we use a conservative baseline assumption
- • Market-implied break-even for home is ~56.5%; our estimate is 58% giving a small edge
- • Edge is small and sensitive to small changes in assumed probability or available information