Highlights

• • Home pair priced at 2.68 while we estimate ~42% chance to win
• • Away favorite’s implied probability (~69.8%) appears overstated relative to available profiles

Pros

• + Home side benefits from Tararudee’s large body of match experience
• + Current market price for the home team (>2.38 threshold) offers positive EV

Cons

• - Research data is limited and recent-match details are sparse and similar across profiles
• - Doubles outcomes are volatile; single-match variance can wipe out expected value

Details

We estimate value on the Anna-Lena Friedsam / Lanlana Tararudee pairing versus Estelle Cascino / Shuo Feng because the market heavily favors the away team at decimal 1.433 (implied ~69.8%). From the available player profiles, Lanlana Tararudee brings substantially more match experience and a long career record, while the other three players’ limited recent records shown in the research suggest no clear dominance for the away pair. We conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home team at 42%. At the current home price of 2.68 this implies EV = 0.42 * 2.68 - 1 = 0.126 (12.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake), so the home line appears to offer positive expected value versus the market-implied probability. In contrast the away price (1.433) implies a ~69.8% win rate which exceeds our estimated true probability and therefore is overpriced by the market.

Key factors

• • Lanlana Tararudee’s extensive match experience and durable career record
• • Opponent profiles show limited or similar recent performance—no clear superiority
• • Market heavily favors the away pair (implied ~69.8%), creating value in the underdog price