Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Carole Monnet
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overprices the home favorite relative to the limited data; Monnet at 2.40 shows value versus our estimated 45% win probability.
Highlights
- • Both players: 10-21 season records — matchup appears near even
- • Away odds 2.40 exceed our fair odds threshold of 2.222, giving ~8% EV
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.40)
- + Decision driven by parity in supplied data rather than speculative factors
Cons
- - Very limited and noisy data set; small informational edge
- - If there are unreported injuries, surface preferences, or H2H advantages not in the research, the edge could evaporate
Details
We view this as a much closer matchup than the market implies. Both players have effectively identical recent records (10-21) and identical limited recent-match data in the provided research, which argues for a roughly even baseline probability rather than the heavy favorite pricing on Anna-Lena Friedsam. The market prices Friedsam at 1.56 (implied ~64.1%) which looks overstated given the lack of a clear form or ranking edge in the supplied data. We estimate Carole Monnet's true win probability at 45%, which translates to fair decimal odds of ~2.222. The offered away price of 2.40 therefore contains positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 2.40 - 1 = +0.08 (8% ROI). We use the publicly quoted current moneyline 2.40 for the EV calculation. Given sparse distinguishing information (no injuries, no decisive head-to-head edge, similar surfaces played), taking the away price is a value play when odds are >= 2.222.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical season records and matching recent-match snippets, indicating a close contest
- • Bookmaker prices Friedsam at ~64% implied probability which overstates the edge given available data
- • No injury or form differentiator in the research; market margin suggests opportunity on the underdog