Highlights

• • Both players have similar career records and surface experience
• • Current market favors the away player heavily; we see no compensating edge

Pros

• + Market prices are transparent and imply a clear favorite
• + Research shows both players with broad surface experience (no one-sided surface advantage)

Cons

• - No distinct form, injury or H2H advantage identified in the available research
• - Home odds would need to rise to ~2.50+ to offer value by our estimate

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 2.32 / Away 1.552) to our assessment and find no betting value. The market-implied probabilities are ~43.1% for the home (1/2.32) and ~64.4% for the away (1/1.552). The available research shows both players with very similar career-length profiles, mixed recent results and experience on multiple surfaces; there is no clear form, surface or injury edge for either player. Given the lack of differentiating information and the market's clear favoritism toward the away player, we estimate the home true win probability at 40% (below the market-implied 43.1%), which produces a negative EV at the current home price. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: Home 43.1%, Away 64.4%
• • Profiles and recent results show no clear advantage to either player
• • Current home price (2.32) is below our minimum required odds (2.50) for value