Anna Petkovic vs Leonie Schuknecht

Highlights

• • Market implies away only ~23.9% chance, we estimate ~30%
• • Positive EV if price holds at ~4.19 (EV ≈ +0.257)

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge vs implied market probability
• + Petkovic's documented poor recent results support a lower true probability than market implies

Cons

• - Research set lacks any performance or injury data for Leonie Schuknecht
• - Estimate relies on limited information and is sensitive to small probability errors

Details

We compared the book market price (Anna Petkovic 1.196 / Leonie Schuknecht 4.19) to our estimated true win probabilities. The market implies the home player wins ~83.6% (1/1.196) and the away ~23.9% (1/4.19). The only research provided shows Anna Petkovic has a weak recent record (10-21 overall, multiple recent losses on hard courts), which suggests the market is overpricing her as an 83%+ favorite. Given that limited information, we conservatively estimate Leonie Schuknecht's true chance at ~30%; at decimal 4.19 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 4.19 - 1 = +0.257). Because the required probability to break even at 4.19 is only ~23.9%, our 30% estimate produces value. We therefore recommend taking the away moneyline only if the current price is at or near 4.19 (odds_used_for_ev = 4.19).

Key factors

• • Anna Petkovic's poor recent form (10-21 overall, recent losses on hard courts)
• • Market heavily favors the home player at 1.196 (implied >83% chance)
• • Current away price 4.19 requires only ~23.9% win probability to be +EV