Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Lacasse ~82.6% appears overstated given provided recent form
• • Required fair odds for value on Shkutova are ~3.571; current 4.10 exceeds that

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current price (≈14.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake)
• + Underdog price leaves room for variance-driven upside

Cons

• - Limited data on Anna Shkutova in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - Tennis match outcomes are high-variance; even +EV selections can lose frequently

Details

We compare the market prices to our assessment. The market heavily favors Raphaelle Lacasse at 1.21 (implied ~82.6%) while Anna Shkutova is priced at 4.10 (implied ~24.4%). Lacasse has a very long career record and clear experience edge, but the provided recent-match notes show recent losses and do not demonstrate dominant form; we also have no direct head-to-head or injury information for Shkutova in the provided research. Given Lacasse's career win rate (around 52.5%) and mixed recent results, we believe the market overstates Lacasse's short-term win probability for this specific match. Conservatively, we estimate Shkutova's true probability of winning at 28.0%, which implies minimum fair decimal odds of 3.571. At the available price of 4.10 on Shkutova, the bet offers positive expected value: EV = 0.28 * 4.10 - 1 = +0.148 (14.8% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home underdog only because the current odds materially exceed our required fair price, creating value; if the market moves below ~3.57, value disappears.

Key factors

• • Market implies extreme favor for Lacasse (1.21) but provided form notes show recent losses
• • Lacasse has long career experience but not overwhelming career win percentage (~52.5%)
• • No data provided on Shkutova; lack of opponent information increases uncertainty and potential market overpricing