Highlights

• • Market implies Paterno 62.8% vs our 55% estimate
• • EV on Paterno at current odds is about -12.4% (negative)

Pros

• + Paterno has a long positive career sample to support competence
• + Odds are stable and widely available, so any real edge would be tradable

Cons

• - Recent form appears mixed which reduces upside confidence in Paterno
• - No reliable data on Anna Tambelli or surface, increasing model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market odds (Giulia Paterno 1.592 implied ~62.8%) to our estimate of Paterno's true win probability (55%). Paterno's long career win rate (~52.4%) provides a baseline, but recent mixed results and limited data on Anna Tambelli prevent us from assigning a substantially higher probability than 55%. At a 55% true probability the fair price for Paterno would be ~1.818; the current 1.592 line is noticeably shorter, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.55*1.592 - 1 = -0.124). Conversely, Anna Tambelli trading at 2.25 (implied ~44.4%) would need a true win chance above ~44.4% to be +EV; while she could plausibly be ~45% given the sparse opponent data, our confidence is insufficient to claim value there given uncertainty. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at available prices.

Key factors

• • Giulia Paterno career win rate around 52.4% provides baseline competence
• • Recent matches show mixed/declining short-term form, reducing confidence above market-implied 62.8%
• • Very limited reliable information on Anna Tambelli and surface/venue specifics increases uncertainty