Anne Schaefer vs Deborah Chiesa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Anne Schaefer at 2.57 — our conservative 46% win estimate yields ~18% ROI versus the market-implied 39%.
Highlights
- • Market overvalues Deborah relative to the supplied profiles
- • Anne's price (2.57) exceeds our min required odds (2.174) for value
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at the current quoted price
- + Research shows parity between players, undermining a large favorite price
Cons
- - Limited data and no H2H or recent-match context in the provided research
- - Both players show generally weak recent records, increasing outcome variance
Details
We see a clear discrepancy between the market and the available player profiles: the market prices Deborah Chiesa at 1.476 (implied ~67.7%) and Anne Schaefer at 2.57 (implied ~38.9%). The limited research shows nearly identical career records, similar surface experience, and no clear injury or form advantage for Chiesa that would justify such a wide gap. Given parity in background and the absence of supporting evidence for a two-to-one market edge, we assess Anne Schaefer's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 38.9%. Using a conservative true probability of 46%, Anne at 2.57 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.46 * 2.57 - 1 = 0.182). We therefore recommend backing the home player because the current price appears to incorporate an overestimate of Chiesa's edge that is not supported by the provided data.
Key factors
- • Market implies Anne 38.9% but research does not support a large gap
- • Both players have nearly identical career records and surface experience
- • No injury or form advantage for the favorite evident in the provided data