Anne Schaefer vs Linda Sevcikova

Highlights

• • Market implies ~37.9% for the away player; we estimate 45%
• • Minimum fair decimal price for value is ~2.222; current 2.64 exceeds that

Pros

• + Positive EV at current widely-available price (EV ≈ 0.188 per unit)
• + Strong evidence of matchup parity supports our higher probability for the away

Cons

• - Limited data depth—no H2H, surface specifics, or additional context in research increases uncertainty
• - Small sample records and recent poor form for both players make projections noisy

Details

We find value on Linda Sevcikova (away). The market prices Anne Schaefer as a strong favorite at 1.433 (implied win prob ~69.8%), but the research shows nearly identical career records (Anne 10-22, Linda 10-21) and comparable recent form with no clear injury or surface advantage reported. Given the parity in available data and lack of evidence for a large edge to the home player, we estimate Linda's true win probability at 45%. At the quoted away price of 2.64 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.64 - 1 = 0.188). The market appears to be overstating a home advantage, so the away line offers value relative to our estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Nearly-identical career records (Anne 10-22 vs Linda 10-21) indicating a close matchup
• • No injuries, h2h, or surface edge documented in the provided research to justify a large favorite
• • Market-implied probability for the home player (≈69.8%) looks overstated versus available evidence