Highlights

• • Away price implies >72% win chance despite weak recent form shown for Arantxa Rus in the data
• • Home estimated probability (42%) exceeds market-implied home chance (34.5%), creating value

Pros

• + Positive EV at current widely-available home price (2.90)
• + Research shows no clear dominance by the favored pair and highlights Rus's poor recent results

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited and contains repeated/generalized records; uncertainty around doubles-specific chemistry
• - If the market price reflects unreported factors (injuries, strong partnership record for away team) our estimate could be optimistic

Details

The market prices the Todoni/Rus pair as heavy favorites (away decimal 1.377, implied ~72.6%). We estimate that the public is overrating that pairing based on the provided research: Arantxa Rus shows weak recent form (10-21 in the provided span) and the three other players (Koevermans, Ryser, Todoni) in the files show broadly similar career volumes and mixed recent results. There is no clear dominance by the away pair in the supplied data, and the away implied probability (0.726) looks inflated vs. the limited form information. We set a conservative true probability for the home pair at 42% (higher than the market-implied 34.5% for the home side at 2.90), producing positive expected value at the current home price (EV = 0.42*2.90 - 1 = +0.218). Key drivers: similar career workload across the players, Arantxa Rus's below-par recent win rate in the provided record, and lack of any supplied head-to-head or partnership advantage for the away team. Given the sizable gap between our 42% estimate and the market-implied 34.5%, the home side represents value at the quoted 2.90 price.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors away (implied 72.6%) while supplied form data does not clearly justify that gap
• • Arantxa Rus shows poor recent win rate in the provided data (10-21), reducing expected contribution for the away pair
• • No head-to-head or partnership superiority for Todoni/Rus is present in the research; home pair likely closer in strength