Anouk Koevermans vs Sara Bejlek
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We view Anouk Koevermans as undervalued at 5.6 given the parity in the provided data; at an estimated 20% true chance she offers positive expected value.
Highlights
- • Book market implies ~87% for Bejlek, which is not supported by the limited records provided
- • At a 20% true win chance, Koevermans yields about +12% EV at 5.6
Pros
- + Large margin between implied probability and our conservative estimated probability
- + Decent upside if live/in-match dynamics or small unknown edges favor the underdog
Cons
- - Research is sparse — no head-to-head, ranking, or injury detail in the provided sources
- - Underdog outcome is higher variance; model uncertainty is significant
Details
The market prices Sara Bejlek at 1.15 (≈87.0% implied) which implies very little chance for Anouk Koevermans (5.6 -> ≈17.9% implied). The limited research shows both players with nearly identical career-level records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay, hard) and comparable recent results — there is no clear evidence in the provided data that justifies an ~87% chance for Bejlek. Given that parity in the available metrics suggests a much closer matchup than the market implies, we assign Anouk a materially higher true win probability than the 17.9% implied by 5.6. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 20.0% for Koevermans produces positive expected value at the available 5.6 price (EV = 0.20*5.6 - 1 = +0.12, or +12% ROI). We therefore recommend the home underdog at current pricing as a value play, while noting high variance due to limited data.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career win-loss records (10-21) in the provided research
- • Recent form in the research shows losses for both; no clear form edge for the favorite
- • Market strongly favors Bejlek (1.15) despite lack of supporting disparity in the provided data