Highlights

• • Koevermans: extensive experience and higher career win-rate (~52%)
• • Smith: limited matches (31) and weaker overall record (~32% wins), but market price already reflects a clear gap

Pros

• + Clear qualitative edge for Koevermans on experience and historical performance
• + Both players have clay experience which reduces surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for both players, increasing short-term unpredictability
• - Market price (1.38) implies ~72.5% which is slightly higher than our 70% fair estimate — no positive EV

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Anouk Koevermans (1.38 -> 72.5%) to our assessment. Koevermans has a large career sample (559-507, ~52.4% overall) and a clear experience edge over Tina Nadine Smith (10-21, ~32.3%) who has only ~31 career matches. Both players have clay/hard history, but Koevermans' longevity and higher win rate make her the clear favorite. We estimate Koevermans' true chance around 70% given the experience and surface familiarity advantage, but the current price (1.38, implied 72.5%) is slightly shorter than fair value and does not provide positive expected value. Additional negatives for backing Koevermans at current price: both players show recent losses and Smith's small sample creates variance, so the market premium for Koevermans appears reasonable rather than mispriced. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at the quoted odds because EV is slightly negative.

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior career win-rate for Koevermans vs Smith
• • Smith's small sample size and sub-33% career win-rate increases uncertainty but still suggests lower win probability
• • Market-implied probability (72.5%) is slightly higher than our estimate (70%), removing value