Anouk Koevermans vs Sara Bejlek

Highlights

• • Koevermans' extensive match experience across surfaces contrasts with Bejlek's small sample
• • Current favorite price for Bejlek implies a probability inconsistent with the career records provided

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at available odds (estimated ROI ~52%)
• + Experience and multi-surface competency favor Koevermans in a WTA125 setting

Cons

• - Bejlek may be younger/less-known and could be improving rapidly despite career record
• - Limited direct-form details and lack of head-to-head increases uncertainty

Details

We see a clear mismatch between the market and the players' career data provided. Anouk Koevermans has a long career (559-507 in 1,066 matches across multiple surfaces) and far greater experience than Sara Bejlek (10-21 in 31 matches). Both players have recent losses in lower-level events, but Bejlek's limited sample size and sub-33% career win rate suggest a higher variance and lower baseline level than Koevermans. The market assigns Bejlek ~83.9% implied win probability (1.192 decimal), which we view as overstated given the experience gap and Koevermans' proven durability across surfaces. We estimate Koevermans' true chance at ~32.0%, which requires min decimal odds of ~3.125; the available price of 4.76 generates positive expected value (EV = 0.32*4.76 - 1 ≈ 0.523). Therefore we recommend backing the home player at the current price as a value bet.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Koevermans 1,066 matches vs Bejlek 31 matches
• • Career win rates favor Koevermans (~52.6%) vs Bejlek (~32.3%)
• • Market heavily favors Bejlek (implied ~83.9%), likely overstating her edge given limited sample