Highlights

• • Market implies ~71.6% for Koevermans; we estimate 76%
• • Edge driven by experience and larger career sample for Koevermans

Pros

• + Clear experience and durability advantage for Koevermans
• + Current price offers a positive expected value per our conservative model

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses on their last results, introducing form uncertainty
• - Tennis matches can produce upsets; single-match variance is high

Details

We see clear value backing the home player, Anouk Koevermans. The market price (1.397, implied ~71.6%) understates her edge versus Tina Nadine Smith given Koevermans' extensive experience and much larger match sample (559-507 career record across many seasons) compared with Smith's limited 31-match career (10-21). Both players have activity on clay/hard, but Koevermans' longevity, higher win-rate across surfaces and greater match-play resilience justify a higher true win probability than the market. We conservatively estimate Koevermans' true win probability at 76%; at the current decimal price of 1.397 that produces a positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.062 per 1 unit staked). Key risks are some recent losses in both players' form lines and the potential for variance in a best-of-three match, but the price offers a measurable edge.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Koevermans ~1066 matches vs Smith 31 matches
• • Career win-rate differential: Koevermans materially higher long-term success
• • Market-implied probability (71.6%) is below our estimated true probability (76%)