Highlights

• • Market implies ~80.1% for Mitsuki; our estimate is ~74%
• • Required fair odds (1.351) are meaningfully above the available 1.249

Pros

• + Mitsuki has more experience and a better win-loss record overall, especially on hard courts
• + Berger's limited match volume and losing record suggest an underdog profile

Cons

• - Mitsuki's recent form includes losses at higher events, reducing confidence below market pricing
• - Small-sample noise for Berger creates uncertainty around true matchup odds

Details

The market heavily favors the away player at 1.249 (implied ~80.06%). After assessing both profiles we estimate Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong is the stronger player on hard courts given a substantially larger match sample (60 matches, 31-29) versus Antoine Berger (26 matches, 10-16). However, Mitsuki's recent results include losses at higher-level events, so we judge his true win probability lower than the market-implied ~80%. We estimate Mitsuki's true probability at 74% (0.74), which implies fair decimal odds of 1.351. At the current price of 1.249 there is a negative expected value (EV = 0.74 * 1.249 - 1 ≈ -0.076), so no value exists and we do not recommend backing the favorite.

Key factors

• • Away (Mitsuki) has larger match sample and better overall record on hard
• • Mitsuki has recent losses at higher-level events suggesting less than overwhelming edge
• • Home (Berger) has limited wins and inferior win-rate, but small sample increases uncertainty