Highlights

• • Home (Ghibaudo) estimated win probability 45% vs. market-implied 37.6%
• • Positive EV on home: ~0.197 (19.7% ROI on a single bet) at 2.66

Pros

• + Surface familiarity: Ghibaudo has recorded grass matches while Johns lacks grass history
• + Attractive price: current 2.66 requires only ~37.6% implied probability but we estimate 45%

Cons

• - Johns has stronger overall match record and more experience at higher levels
• - Limited public data and small-sample grass records increase uncertainty

Details

We see a market that heavily favors Garrett Johns at 1.483 (implied ~67%). Johns has a stronger overall record and more matches, but his documented experience is largely on hard and clay with no listed grass history; Antoine Ghibaudo has recorded play on grass. Given the surface edge for Ghibaudo, Ghibaudo's solid Challenger-level win rate (26-18) and recent qualifying match wins, we estimate Ghibaudo's true chance to be materially higher than the book's implied 37.6% for his 2.66 price. Comparing our estimated probability (45%) to the offered decimal 2.66 yields positive expected value. By contrast, Johns would need to be >67.4% likely to win to justify the 1.483 price; we judge his true probability closer to ~55–60% once grass disadvantage and potential fatigue from recent high-level events are accounted for, so there is no value on Johns at current odds. Overall this is a value bet on Ghibaudo due to surface matchup and pricing disconnect.

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass — Ghibaudo has grass experience while Johns' record shows clay/hard focus
• • Market pricing: Johns priced at 1.483 (implied ~67%) which we view as overstated given surface and recent form
• • Sample and form: Johns has more matches and higher overall win rate but mixed recent results and potential fatigue from higher-level events