Highlights

• • Market implied away probability: ~36.4%; our estimate: 37.5%
• • Required fair odds for our estimate: 2.667; market price is 2.75

Pros

• + Small but positive expected value at available prices
• + Conservative probability modeling reduces overconfidence given missing data

Cons

• - Recommendation is based on conservative assumptions due to no match-specific data
• - Edge is small (≈3.1% ROI) and sensitive to probability estimate error

Details

No external match data or injury/form reports were available, so we apply a conservative, neutral-model approach. The market prices Antoine Escoffier at 1.43 (implied ~69.9%) and Mae Malige at 2.75 (implied ~36.4%). After accounting for bookmaker margin and uncertainty, we estimate Mae Malige's true win probability at 37.5% (0.375). That estimate is slightly higher than the market-implied 36.36%, producing a small positive edge at the available away price of 2.75. Given the limited information, we remain conservative in the probability assignment but conclude the current away decimal price offers value (EV > 0) because 2.75 exceeds the minimum fair price implied by our estimate.

Key factors

• • No external data available — conservative baseline probability assigned
• • Bookmaker-implied away probability (36.36%) vs our estimate (37.5%)
• • Small positive edge after comparing our fair price to the quoted 2.75