Antoine Ghibaudo vs Ilija Palavestra
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend betting the home player Antoine Ghibaudo: the market's implied probability (~91.3%) is lower than our 94% estimate, yielding a small positive EV at 1.096.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 91.3% vs our 94% estimate
- • Small positive ROI (~3.1%) at current odds
Pros
- + Clear experience and surface familiarity advantage for Ghibaudo
- + Current price (1.096) exceeds the minimum required odds for our estimated probability (1.064)
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈3.1% ROI) — outcome variance can erase gains in the short term
- - Palavestra's limited data increases uncertainty; unexpected factors (injury/form) could change the match dynamic
Details
We view Antoine Ghibaudo as a clear favorite on grass given his larger match sample (44 matches through Aug 2025), documented play on grass among his surfaces, and materially more competitive experience than Ilija Palavestra (only 5 recorded matches, no grass listed). The market price of 1.096 implies an implied win probability of ~91.3%; we estimate Ghibaudo's true win probability at 94.0% based on the surface advantage, experience gap, and Palavestra's very limited track record. At our estimate the market price offers positive expected value (EV = 0.94 * 1.096 - 1 ≈ 0.031), so the home side is a value play at current odds.
Key factors
- • Ghibaudo has substantially more professional match experience and has played on grass
- • Palavestra has a very limited match history (5 matches) and no recorded grass matches
- • Current market odds (1.096) imply ~91.3% while our estimate is ~94%, producing a small positive edge