Highlights

• • Normalized true probability: Home ~33.8%, Away ~66.2%
• • Both Home and Away produce ~-6.8% ROI at current prices

Pros

• + Conservative, margin-adjusted probability method reduces false positives
• + Clear threshold provided for where Home would become +EV (decimal > 2.962)

Cons

• - No match-specific data available (form, surface preference, injuries) — limits confidence
• - Small differences in probability estimates could flip EV; market moves may create short windows of value

Details

We have no external form, injury, or H2H data, so we use a conservative market-normalization approach. The raw implied probabilities from the quoted decimals are: Home 1/2.76 = 36.23%, Away 1/1.407 = 71.07% (sum = 107.30%, overround ~7.3%). Normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin yields estimated true probabilities of Home ≈ 33.77% and Away ≈ 66.23%. Using those probabilities, expected ROI on the quoted prices is negative for both sides: Home EV = 0.3377*2.76 - 1 ≈ -0.068, Away EV = 0.6623*1.407 - 1 ≈ -0.068. Because neither side yields positive expected value at the current market prices, we do not recommend a bet. To find value on the Home side you would need minimum decimal odds ≈ 2.962 (i.e., >2.96). We therefore set team_to_bet to "none" and advise waiting for a price improvement or additional information that would change our probability estimates.

Key factors

• • No external data available — conservative market-normalized probabilities used
• • Market shows a ~7.3% overround; normalization gives Home ≈33.8%, Away ≈66.2%
• • Both sides produce negative EV at current quoted decimals (no value)