Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: 75.7%; our estimate: 78%
• • Required decimal to break even: 1.282; current price 1.321 > required

Pros

• + Current price provides a small positive expected value versus our probability
• + No injury or surface disadvantages apparent in the supplied research

Cons

• - Research is limited and both players show very similar career profiles, increasing uncertainty
• - Quarterfinal stage can bring unpredictable performance swings; edge is small

Details

Bookmakers price Antonia Stoyanov at 1.321 (implied probability 75.7%). The public research provided shows nearly identical career totals and surface experience for both players but gives us no clear injury or head-to-head advantage for Obradovic. Given Stoyanov’s favorite status in the market and the lack of negative signals in the research, we assign a slightly higher true win probability (78%) than the market implies. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.282; the current 1.321 offers positive expected value. We remain conservative because data is sparse and both players have similar career profiles, but the market margin is sufficient to recommend a small-value play on the home side at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker price implies 75.7% win chance; we estimate 78%
• • Available research shows similar career records and surface experience, no red flags
• • Sparse recent-form detail increases model uncertainty; market still offers a small edge