Highlights

• • Anyone's Legend implied by market: ~75% vs our estimate 70%
• • Required odds for value: home ≥1.429, away ≥3.333 — both are not met

Pros

• + Home favorite status suggests a real edge potential if additional positive data appears
• + Market is conventional (no extreme outlier) so small informational edges could change value quickly

Cons

• - Current prices do not offer positive EV under conservative probability estimates
• - Lack of match-specific information (form, patches, roster/injury) increases uncertainty

Details

We have no external match data and therefore use conservative assumptions. We estimate Anyone's Legend has a ~70% win probability (Weibo ~30%) based on home status and typical market behavior. At that true probability the min fair decimal for Anyone's Legend is 1.429, but the market price is 1.331, which yields a negative EV (≈ -6.8%). The away side likewise lacks value: we'd need ≥3.333 but the market is 3.27 (EV ≈ -1.9%). Given the absence of reliable situational data (roster changes, recent form, patch impacts) we decline to recommend a side because neither price offers positive expected value.

Key factors

• • No independent recent-data sources available (conservative assumptions only)
• • Home-side favorite priced at 1.331 vs our conservative fair price ~1.429
• • Market vig and limited information create downside to betting either side