Anyone's Legend vs Ninjas in Pyjamas

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (market): ~84.1% at 1.189
• • Break-even for our estimated true probability (80%) is 1.25 — market is shorter

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on a strong favorite, simplifying probability comparison
• + If additional info emerges showing higher home chance (>80%), the market price would become attractive

Cons

• - Current home price (1.189) yields negative EV against our conservative estimate
• - No independent data (injuries, form, H2H) to justify deviating from conservative probabilities

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Anyone's Legend home 1.189, Ninjas in Pyjamas away 4.5) to a conservative, information-light estimate. The bookmakers' implied probability for the home line is ~84.1% (1/1.189), but given no match-specific intel, we conservatively estimate Anyone's Legend's true win probability at 80%. At that estimate the fair decimal price is 1.25, meaning the current market price of 1.189 is too short and offers negative expectation. We also checked the away line: a 4.5 price implies a break-even probability of 22.2%, but with the home team likely substantially favored our conservative away win probability would be ~20%, which is below that break-even threshold. With the available prices and high uncertainty (no form, roster, or H2H data provided), neither side offers positive EV at current odds. We therefore recommend no bet and specify the minimum odds required for positive expectation based on our conservative probability.

Key factors

• • No external match data (form, roster, H2H) available — high uncertainty
• • Market strongly favors home: implied probability ~84.1% at 1.189
• • Our conservative true probability (80%) still requires at least 1.25 to be +EV