Highlights

• • Gadient's provided career record (10-21) implies a much lower baseline win rate than market pricing
• • Home price 2.32 exceeds our fair threshold (2.083), producing positive EV

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge at current home price given our probability estimate
• + Clay surface and ITF-level volatility increase upset potential

Cons

• - Limited direct information on Ariadna Garcia-Patron Canals in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Gadient may have unreported factors (fitness, matchup traits) not present in the data that could favor her

Details

We assess clear value on the home side (Ariadna Garcia-Patron Canals) because the market heavily favors Nicole Gadient at 1.526 (implied ~65.5%) despite Gadient's weak recorded form (10-21 overall in the provided span) and recent string of losses on tour. Gadient's documented win rate in the research (~32% overall from 10/31) suggests the market is overestimating her chances here. Given the match is on clay (where variability is high at ITF level) and the absence of any positive form or injury info for Gadient in the provided material, we conservatively estimate the true probability for the home player at 48%. At that probability, the min required decimal odds are 2.083, and the offered home price of 2.32 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.114 per unit staked). We note substantial uncertainty due to missing direct data on the home player's recent results and head-to-head, so our assessment is cautious but finds a clear edge at the quoted market price.

Key factors

• • Nicole Gadient's poor recorded form in the provided span (10-21 overall)
• • Market strongly favors Gadient (1.526) despite weak recent results in research
• • Surface is clay (ITF matches on clay can be more variable and allow upsets)