Highlights

• • Market implies Sierra ~67%, but research suggests a much closer matchup
• • Estimated true chance for Hartono ~45% yields ~22% EV at 2.71

Pros

• + Significant margin between fair odds and market odds in favor of Hartono
• + No research-based reason to justify the heavy favorite status for Sierra

Cons

• - Limited dataset and no H2H or deeper match-specific metrics in the provided research
• - If unseen factors (injury, recent form not in sources, local conditions) favor Sierra, our estimate could be too optimistic

Details

The market prices Solana Sierra as a clear favorite at decimal 1.485 (implied ~67.3%), while Arianne Hartono is available at 2.71 (implied ~36.9%). The limited research shows both players with effectively identical career spans, identical 10-21 records and similar recent results and surfaces played (clay and hard). With no clear injury, surface or form edge in the provided data, we view the matchup as much closer to even than the market implies. After accounting for the bookmaker margin (the two implied probs sum to ~104.2%), we estimate Hartono’s true chance at ~45%. At that probability the home price of 2.71 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 2.71 - 1 ≈ +0.22 (22% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because the available research shows parity between the players and no concrete reason to prefer Sierra strongly, we recommend the underdog Hartono where the market appears to over-favor Sierra.

Key factors

• • Provided records and recent results show both players with identical 10-21 records and similar recent matches
• • No clear surface, injury or form advantage identified in the available research
• • Bookmaker market over-weights the away player (Sierra) creating a price discrepancy in favor of the home player