Highlights

• • Market implies ~34% for Bulatova, we estimate ~40%
• • Current price (2.93) is above our minimum fair odds (2.50)

Pros

• + Significant pricing gap relative to parity in research
• + Positive expected value at current widely available odds

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent records (10-21), increasing variance
• - Our edge rests on absence of distinguishing data rather than strong positive indicators

Details

We see nearly identical career records and recent form for both players in the provided data (both 10-21, similar surfaces played and recent results), with no injury information or clear surface advantage. The market has priced Alicia Dudeney as a strong favorite (away 1.364, implied ~73% win chance), while Arina Bulatova is available at 2.93 (implied ~34%). Given the parity in the provided profiles and lack of distinguishing factors, we estimate Bulatova's true win probability substantially higher than the market-implied 34%. Using a conservative true probability of 40% for Bulatova, the minimum fair decimal price is 2.50, so the current 2.93 offers positive expected value. We therefore back the home player at 2.93 based on value: EV = 0.40 * 2.93 - 1 = +0.172 (17.2% ROI).

Key factors

• • Both players show identical recorded form and surface exposure in the provided data (10-21)
• • No injuries or decisive differentiators in the research to justify a large market gap
• • Current market prices imply a much larger gap than the profile-based data supports, creating potential value on the underdog