Highlights

• • Implied market probability (67.7%) > our estimated true probability (60%)
• • Recent losses and missing opponent/surface info increase uncertainty

Pros

• + Long, experienced career with a slightly positive overall win rate
• + Market favors Bulatova, indicating perceived edge or name advantage

Cons

• - Recent match losses reduce confidence in an elevated win probability
• - Insufficient information on opponent and surface makes estimates noisy

Details

We estimate Arina Bulatova's true win probability at ~60% based on a long, slightly positive career record (559-507) and the market treating her as a clear favorite (1.478). However, recent results shown in the research include recent losses (including 01-Sep-2025), and there is no information on the opponent (Ellie Daniels) or clear surface/context for Monastir to justify a materially higher probability. The implied probability of the current home price (1.478) is ~67.7%, which exceeds our estimated 60% true probability, so the available price does not represent value. Because expected value at the current odds is negative, we do not recommend taking the home moneyline at these prices.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker pricing implies ~67.7% for Bulatova (1/1.478), above our estimate
• • Career record is modestly positive (559-507) suggesting general competence
• • Recent form includes fresh losses (01-Sep-2025), lowering confidence
• • No data provided on opponent (Ellie Daniels) or explicit surface at Monastir
• • Player has experience across all surfaces, but tournament context is unclear