Highlights

• • Market overprices the home favorite relative to available data
• • At a 50% true win chance, the away bet converts to positive EV at current odds

Pros

• + Clear numeric value when using a neutral 50% probability
• + Both players' records and surfaces make a coin-flip model defensible

Cons

• - Limited and noisy sample data for both players increases uncertainty
• - No H2H, venue, or injury details to further support the edge — variance risk is material

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probabilities to our estimate of the match outcome. Current market prices imply Arina Bulatova (home) at 1.546 => ~64.7% chance and Megan Heuser (away) at 2.33 => ~42.9% chance. The research shows virtually identical career records (both 10-21 across similar surfaces) and recent results with no clear injury or form edge for either player. Given this parity, we view the true win probability as close to a coin flip (50% for each). At that probability the away price (2.33) represents positive expected value because 0.50 * 2.33 - 1 = +0.165 (16.5% ROI). The favorite price on Bulatova looks inflated relative to available evidence, making Heuser the value side at current odds. We note limited sample size and noisy recent form, so the edge is moderate rather than large.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history
• • Bookmaker implies a large gap favoring Bulatova that isn't supported by the stats provided
• • No injury or H2H data indicating a clear advantage; hence a neutral 50% estimate is reasonable