Highlights

• • Book implied prob (Arina 1.662) ≈ 60.2%; our estimate = 58.0%
• • Required decimal odds for positive EV at our projection: ≥ 1.724

Pros

• + Arina is the market favorite, which reflects some perceived edge
• + Both players' profiles are well known from provided data (no hidden variables shown)

Cons

• - Our model projects a lower win probability than the market for Arina, producing negative EV at 1.662
• - No differentiating factors (form, surface advantage, injuries or H2H) to justify overriding the market price

Details

We estimate Arina Bulatova to have a ~58.0% chance to win this match, while the market price at 1.662 implies ~60.2% (1/1.662). Both players have nearly identical records (10-21) and similar recent form on clay/hard with no clear edge from surface, recent results, or injury information in the provided research. Given our conservative true probability (0.58) is below the bookmaker-implied probability (0.602), the current home price of 1.662 does not offer positive expected value. To reach positive EV on Arina at our projection she would need odds >= 1.724; at the current quoted price the bet is negative EV. We therefore recommend no bet because we cannot identify value at the current market prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical recorded results (10-21) and similar surface exposure in the provided data
• • Market-implied probability for Arina (1.662) is ~60.2%, higher than our estimated true probability (58.0%)
• • No distinguishing injury, H2H, or strong recent-form advantage in the research to justify an edge