Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for the favorite (73.7%) is not supported by the provided player profiles
• • Fair odds for Lacasse at our estimate (2.222) are well below the available 2.96

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current away price
• + Decision based on parity in records and lack of distinguishing factors

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks head-to-head, surface split or recent-match details to be definitive
• - Estimate uncertainty remains; result-dependent variance is high

Details

We find value on Raphaelle Lacasse. The market prices Arina Bulatova heavily as a 1.356 favorite (implied 73.7%), but the available background shows both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and identical recent match entries with no clear performance edge or injury information. With such parity and no strong surface/H2H advantage in the research, Arina's market price appears inflated by home/seat bias. We estimate Raphaelle's true win probability at 45%, which corresponds to fair decimal odds of 2.222. At the current available price of 2.96 for the away moneyline, the bet yields positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.96 - 1 = +0.332). We therefore recommend the away side only because expected_value > 0 at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records and recent-match entries (no clear form advantage)
• • Market heavily favors the home player (Arina) — likely overpricing given parity
• • No injuries or surface-specific edge reported in the provided research