Highlights

• • Home implied probability 76.9% vs our conservative estimate that the favorite is closer to ~52%
• • Away at 3.45 implies ~29% but we estimate ~48%, producing +0.656 EV per unit staked

Pros

• + Large margin between market-implied and our estimated probabilities yields high theoretical ROI
• + Recommendation is driven by parity in documented form and lack of differentiating factors

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited (no H2H, detailed in-match stats, or last-minute injury info), so our probability could be off
• - Backing a long-price underdog carries higher variance and match-level unpredictability

Details

We find clear value on the away moneyline. The market prices Arina Rodionova at 1.30 (implied win probability 76.9%) and Martina Okalova at 3.45 (implied 29.0%). The available research shows nearly identical records, surfaces played and recent results for both players with no reported injury or H2H advantage, so we estimate the true win probability for Okalova substantially higher than the market implies. We conservatively estimate Okalova's true win probability at 48% based on parity in form and surface history. At 48% the fair decimal price is 2.083, meaning the listed 3.45 offers strong positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 3.45 - 1 = +0.656). By contrast backing the favorite at 1.30 is negative EV under our projection (EV = 0.52 * 1.30 - 1 = -0.324). Given the lack of differentiating data in the research and the large discrepancy between implied and our estimated probabilities, we recommend taking the underdog at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided research
• • No reported injuries or H2H data that meaningfully favor the heavy market favorite
• • Market-implied probabilities are heavily skewed toward the home player (1.30) creating an arbitrage-like value for the underdog
• • Surface/venue exposure is similar (clay and hard) so surface advantage appears minimal