Highlights

• • Varaksina is a heavy market favorite (1.07) but has a poor recent record
• • Insufficient opponent/H2H information raises model uncertainty

Pros

• + Market gives clear favorite which simplifies value comparison
• + Varaksina has played on hard courts recently (surface relevance available)

Cons

• - Varaksina's 10-21 record and recent losses on hard courts argue against a >93% win probability
• - No information on Mancini means hidden downside risk and model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Arina Varaksina 1.07, implied win probability ~93.5%) to our assessment of the match. The only research available shows Varaksina with a 10-21 career record and recent losses on hard courts; there is no information provided on Arabelle Mancini or any head-to-head data. To be profitable at the current favorite price we would need to believe Varaksina's true win probability exceeds ~93.5%, which is not supported by her recent form and overall record. Given the lack of opponent data and Varaksina's middling record, we estimate her true win chance to be substantially lower than the market-implied figure and therefore see no value in backing either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Varaksina (1.07) implying >93% win probability
• • Varaksina's recent form and overall record are weak (10-21) with recent hard-court losses
• • No data on Arabelle Mancini or H2H available in the research, increasing uncertainty