Highlights

• • Home price 1.12 implies 89% win chance despite Mehrotra being 1-6 recently
• • Valuation gap: we estimate Luke at ~70% win probability vs market 17%

Pros

• + Large theoretical edge at current price (EV ~ +306% per unit)
• + Market appears to misprice the matchup relative to documented poor form of the favorite

Cons

• - Extremely limited public data on both players and match conditions increases model risk
• - Possibility of data errors, local knowledge, or other factors justifying the short favorite that we do not observe

Details

We find clear value on the away side (Luke McMillan). The market price implies a home-win probability of ~89.3% (1/1.12) and an away-win probability of ~17.2% (1/5.8). Research shows Arjun Mehrotra has a 1-6 record in his recent career span and very limited match volume, which does not support him being an 89% favorite against an unspecified opponent. Given Mehrotra's poor recent form, small sample size, and the lack of supporting data for such heavy favoritism, we estimate the true chance for the away player to win is substantially higher than the market-implied 17.2%. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Luke McMillan of 70%, the fair decimal price would be ~1.429. At the available price of 5.8 this yields a large positive expected value (EV = 0.70 * 5.8 - 1 = 3.06 per unit staked). We therefore recommend the away side only because current prices provide a materially positive EV; we note this recommendation carries elevated risk given limited public data and the potential for market or data errors.

Key factors

• • Arjun Mehrotra's recent record is 1-6, which undermines the market's heavy favoring of the home player
• • Market implies away probability of ~17.2% (5.8), which appears undervalued given Mehrotra's form
• • Limited data/sample size increases uncertainty but also creates likelihood of mispriced lines