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Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers play on 2025-10-25 16:45 in the NCAA (american football). Compare american football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 2.5%. Suggested side: Arkansas Razorbacks. Moneyline — Home: 1.88 (53.2%), Away: 1.94 (51.5%).
Our lean: Arkansas Razorbacks. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 1.88, Away: 1.94. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks moneyline given current prices.
We estimate Arkansas has a modest home advantage and a slightly better chance than the market-implied probability suggests. The market decimal for Arkansas (1.88) implies a win probability of ~53.2%; based on form (Arkansas at home, Auburn 0-? in SEC and 1-4 ATS recently), head-to-head home scoring trends, and both teams' close-loss profiles, we estimate Arkansas's true win probability at 54.5%. At that probability the fair decimal is ~1.835 and the current 1.88 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.545 * 1.88 - 1 = 0.0246 (≈2.46% ROI). We view this as a small but real edge given the available price.
Summary: We find a small value on Arkansas at 1.88 because our 54.5% win estimate exceeds the market-implied ~53.2%, producing ~2.5% ROI.