Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for favorite: ~78%
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 60% → no value at 1.28

Pros

• + Favorite is priced as a strong favorite in the market
• + If additional reliable info emerges confirming the favorite's superiority, value could appear

Cons

• - No usable match, form, surface, or injury data in research to justify the market gap
• - High uncertainty makes any positive EV claim speculative

Details

We compared the market prices (home 1.28 -> implied ~78%) to our assessment and found insufficient public data to justify the market's heavy confidence. The only available profile shows Arman Zamani with no recorded matches; there is no research on Ilan Klein, surface, form, injuries, or H2H. Given that uncertainty, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the listed favorite (Arman) at 60%, well below the market-implied ~78%, which produces a negative expected value at the current 1.28 price. Because expected value is negative and uncertainty is high, we do not recommend taking the favorite. To back a side profitably here the market would need to offer much longer odds than currently available.

Key factors

• • No recorded professional match data available for Arman Zamani in the provided research
• • No information provided on Ilan Klein, surface, injuries, form, or H2H
• • Market implies a ~78% probability for the favorite which we view as overstated given the lack of evidence