Highlights

• • Away implied probability ~99.01% vs our estimate 99.0%
• • EV at current favorite price is slightly negative (~-0.01% ROI)

Pros

• + Very low variance if backing the heavy favorite (likely short-priced, low-return)
• + Market consensus makes a big upset unlikely

Cons

• - Quoted prices offer no positive expected value under our conservative probability
• - Lack of match-specific info (surface, injuries, form, H2H) increases uncertainty

Details

The market price (Away 1.01 / Home 53.39) implies an almost certain win for Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg (implied probability ~99.01%). With no external research available, we take a conservative view and estimate the away player’s true win probability at 99.0% (home ~1.0%). At the quoted away price (1.01) the expected value is essentially zero-to-slightly-negative: EV = 0.99 * 1.01 - 1 = -0.0001 (≈ -0.01% ROI). The home price (53.39) requires a >1.87% true chance to be profitable; our conservative estimate for the home player is ≈1.0%, which yields a large negative EV on that long price. Given the tiny negative EV on the heavy favorite and the lack of corroborating information (surface, form, injuries, H2H), we will not recommend a bet because the market offers no positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Extreme market favoritism: away implied probability ≈99.01%
• • No external research available — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Home price requires >1.87% real win chance to be profitable