Highlights

• • Gengel has the superior career record and greater match experience
• • Underdog price (2.75) requires only ~36.4% to break even; our 42% estimate yields ~15.5% ROI

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds
• + Estimation grounded in larger sample and better career win percentage for Gengel

Cons

• - Surface and home/venue specifics are not provided, introducing model uncertainty
• - Recent results for both players are mixed and sample recency is limited

Details

We see value on Marek Gengel as the underdog. The market prices Arthur Bouquier at 1.41 (implied ~70.9% win chance) while Gengel is 2.75 (implied ~36.4%). From the provided profiles Gengel has a substantially larger sample and stronger overall record (62-27) versus Bouquier (27-18), indicating greater consistency and experience. Recent form for both is mixed, but nothing in the research indicates injury or a clear surface advantage for Bouquier. Conservatively adjusting for home/favorite bias and unknown surface, we estimate Gengel's true win probability at 42%, which exceeds the break-even probability for 2.75 (36.36%). At that probability the expected value is positive (EV = 0.155), so the away price represents value versus our estimate.

Key factors

• • Gengel's larger sample size and stronger overall win-loss record (62-27 vs 27-18)
• • Market-implied probability for Bouquier (1.41) appears high relative to the head-to-head data available
• • Recent form for both players is mixed with no reported injuries in the provided research
• • Surface/venue and home advantage are unknown and have been conservatively accounted for in the probability estimate