Highlights

• • Book implies Bouquier 63.7% vs our ~58.5% estimate
• • Neither player’s recent form or surface profile creates value at current prices

Pros

• + We use objective career win rates and recent-form signals to adjust market probabilities
• + Conservative estimate avoids overbetting on a short-priced favorite with mixed recent results

Cons

• - Limited match-level detail and no H2H data increases model uncertainty
• - Small sample sizes in careers and recent results leave room for variance in a single match

Details

We estimate Arthur Bouquier is the slight favorite but not by as much as the market implies. The book price of 1.57 implies a win probability of 63.7%. Bouquier's career win rate (27-18, ~60%) and recent results on hard courts are mixed, so a more realistic single-match win probability is ~58.5%. Using that probability the expected value at the current home price is negative (EV ≈ -0.082 per unit). Patrick Zahraj's career win rate is roughly 54%, but his recent form is also inconsistent and the away price (2.35, implied 42.6%) does not offer clear value once we adjust for match context and surface. Because neither side shows a positive EV at available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Bouquier (1.57) is 63.7% which exceeds our estimate
• • Bouquier's career win rate (~60%) and mixed recent hard-court form suggest true chance closer to 58–59%
• • No clear advantage for Zahraj that would justify the 2.35 price once form and surface are considered