Arthur Nagel vs Jesse Flores
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend betting the away player Jesse Flores at 2.75 — we estimate his win chance at ~42%, producing ~15.5% EV at current price due to his recent hard-court/Monastir activity and similar overall form to the favorite.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability 36.4% vs our estimate 42%
- • Positive EV at current odds (EV ≈ 0.155 per 1 unit)
Pros
- + Jesse has recent matches in Monastir on hard (venue familiarity/surface fit)
- + Odds give a materially higher payout than the probability we assign
Cons
- - Limited sample size and noisy recent results for both players
- - No head-to-head data and Arthur's overall record is slightly better, which could still favor the favorite
Details
We find value on Jesse Flores at current moneyline 2.75. The market implies Jesse has ~36.4% chance (1/2.75). From the provided profiles, both players have similar career win rates (Arthur 17-17; Jesse 12-14) so Arthur is not overwhelmingly superior. Crucially, this match is in Monastir (hard court) and Jesse has recent matches in Monastir on hard, while Arthur's recent noted matches were on clay; that suggests a surface/venue edge to Jesse that the market appears to under-price. Given the comparable overall records and Jesse's recent hard-court/Monastir activity, we estimate Jesse's true win probability at 42%, which is comfortably above the 36.4% market-implied rate, producing positive expected value at the current 2.75 price.
Key factors
- • Surface and venue: match in Monastir on hard where Jesse has recent matches
- • Comparable career records (Arthur 17-17 vs Jesse 12-14) — not a large gap
- • Market-implied probability for Jesse (36.4%) appears lower than our 42% estimate