Arthur Bouquier vs Patrick Zahraj
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player Arthur Bouquier at 1.69 — small but positive expected value based on a higher estimated true win probability versus the market.
Highlights
- • Market price 1.69 implies ~59.1% win chance
- • Our model estimates Bouquier at 62% — small edge
Pros
- + Higher career win percentage in the supplied profiles
- + Price (1.69) is above our min-required odds (1.613) for a profitable long-term expectation
Cons
- - Edge is modest; outcome subject to match-to-match variance
- - Recent form entries for both players show some inconsistency and limited actionable detail
Details
We see value on Arthur Bouquier at 1.69. The market-implied win probability for Bouquier is ~59.1% (1/1.69). Based on the provided profiles, Bouquier has a higher career win rate across surfaces (27-18 ≈ 60%) than Patrick Zahraj (43-36 ≈ 54%) and both have grass experience. We estimate Bouquier's true win probability at 62.0%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 59.1%, producing a small positive expected value. The edge is modest and subject to variance because recent results for both players show some inconsistent form, but given the available data the price of 1.69 offers value versus our model.
Key factors
- • Bouquier's higher career win rate (27-18 ≈ 60%) versus Zahraj (43-36 ≈ 54%)
- • Both players have grass experience; no clear surface disadvantage for Bouquier
- • Market-implied probability (≈59.1%) is below our estimated true probability (62%)