Arthur Gea vs Alexandr Binda

Highlights

• • Normalized career win rates imply a near 50/50 matchup, slightly favoring Binda before home adjustment
• • Current away price (3.75) is well above our min required odds (~2.041) for a positive expectation

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated probability and market-implied probability yields high theoretical EV
• + Both players are comfortable on hard courts, reducing surface-uncertainty risk

Cons

• - Estimates are based on aggregate career records and not H2H or detailed match-level metrics
• - Home advantage and recent form uncertainty could materially change the true probability

Details

We compare the market prices (Gea 1.25, Binda 3.75) to our internal estimate derived from the players' recent career win rates and surface familiarity. Arthur Gea (52-29) and Alexandr Binda (70-35) have similar high win rates on hard courts; normalizing those rates produces a near toss-up with a slight historical edge to Binda. We then apply a modest home-venue adjustment in favor of Gea given this is a home match, producing an estimated true probability for Binda of ~49%. The book’s implied probability for Binda at 3.75 is ~26.7%, leaving a very large discrepancy (value) in the away price. Conservatively accounting for recency (both have recent Challenger losses) and lack of direct H2H information, we still find positive expected value on Binda at the available 3.75 price and calculate EV accordingly.

Key factors

• • Career win rates are similar but slightly favor Binda when normalized
• • Match on hard court, a surface both players have extensive experience on
• • Book heavily favors Gea (1.25) creating a large apparent mispricing
• • No injury flags in the provided research; recent form shows mixed results for both
• • Home advantage for Gea applied as a modest reduction to Binda's edge