Highlights

• • Market-implied probability ~85.8% vs our estimate 55%
• • Required decimal to justify a bet on Kukasian is ~1.818 or longer

Pros

• + Kukasian has match experience and has played on hard courts
• + Active recent schedule indicates match fitness

Cons

• - Market is pricing an outsized probability far above career win-rate and recent form
• - No data on the opponent or other contextual edges to justify the short price

Details

We value the market price against a conservative estimate of Kukasian's true win probability. Kukasian's profile shows a moderate pro sample (25-22) and activity on hard courts, which supports him being the favorite, but the career win-rate and mixed recent results do not justify the extremely short market price (1.166, implied ~85.8%). With the limited information on the opponent and no injury/head-to-head data supplied, we conservatively estimate Kukasian's true win probability substantially below the market implied level. Therefore there is no positive expected value on the 1.166 favorite price. If a bettor required value, Kukasian would need to be offered at roughly 1.818 decimal or longer to breakeven on our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Kukasian has an overall modest pro record (25-22) and experience on hard courts
• • Market price (1.166) implies ~85.8% chance, which materially exceeds our assessment
• • No information provided on You Du or injuries/H2H, increasing uncertainty