Artur Kukasian vs Jaesung Choe
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Artur Kukasian at 1.637 because we assess his true win chance (~66%) is above the market-implied 61.1%, yielding ~8% EV.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 61.1% vs our estimate 66%
- • Positive EV at current price: ~+0.08 (8% ROI)
Pros
- + Clear experience and match-play advantage
- + Recent form at the same tournament and surface
- + Market price provides a margin of value versus our model
Cons
- - ITF-level matches and small sample sizes increase outcome variance
- - Limited head-to-head and incomplete data on opponent tendencies
Details
We estimate Artur Kukasian to be the stronger and more likely winner on hard in Maanshan based on a larger match sample (25-22 career record) and recent wins at this event versus Jaesung Choe's very limited record (0-3). The market price of 1.637 implies a win probability of ~61.1% for the home player; we assess Kukasian's true win probability at 66% given experience, recent form at the same venue/surface, and the opponent's lack of wins. That creates positive expected value: EV = 0.66 * 1.637 - 1 = +0.080 (≈8.0% ROI). We used the current quoted home decimal (1.637) for the EV calculation. We also account for uncertainty from limited direct data and small-sample noise, which reduces how aggressive we are with the probability but does not eliminate value at the current price.
Key factors
- • Experience and larger match sample in favor of Kukasian (25-22 vs 0-3)
- • Both on hard surface and Kukasian has recent wins in Maanshan event
- • Market-implied probability (61.1%) is lower than our estimated true probability (66%)