Artur Kukasian vs Stefan Vujic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the market overstates the favorite Kukasian, and the away price is only marginally attractive but still negative against our estimated probabilities.
Highlights
- • Market-implied home probability (~74%) exceeds our estimate (~66%)
- • Highest EV side at public odds is the away player but still slightly negative (-0.4% ROI)
Pros
- + Kukasian has the better track record and more match play on hard courts
- + Market offers a long price on the away player which is near fair and worth monitoring
Cons
- - Home price is too short relative to our estimate, eliminating value
- - Our estimated edge for the away player is marginal and within estimation error
Details
We estimate Artur Kukasian (home) as the stronger player based on a larger sample (25-22 career record vs 9-14) and more consistent recent play on hard courts. Translating those records into a matchup probability we estimate Kukasian's true win probability at ~66% (away ~34%). Market odds (home 1.344 implied ~74.4%) overstate the favorite; to be +EV on the home side we would need decimal odds of ~1.515 or shorter. At the current prices Kukasian (1.344) yields negative EV (≈ -11.3% ROI), while Stefan Vujic at 2.93 yields a marginally negative EV (≈ -0.4% ROI) using our probability estimates. The market margin appears to favour a heavy favorite price; however our assessed edge is not large enough to back either side at available public prices.
Key factors
- • Kukasian has a larger match sample and better win rate this season (25-22 vs 9-14)
- • Both players have experience on hard courts; Kukasian shows slightly stronger recent form on this surface
- • Market strongly favours the home player (1.344); price is shorter than our fair estimate and removes value