Highlights

• • Both players show the same documented win-loss profile in the research (10-21).
• • Away at 2.53 exceeds our fair-price threshold (2.174) for a 46% win probability.

Pros

• + Clear positive EV with current market price versus our estimated probability.
• + Conservative probability estimate used (46%), not aggressive — still returns value.

Cons

• - Limited data depth in the provided sources (no H2H, limited match context).
• - If unreported factors (injury, fatigue, home advantage) exist, they could invalidate the edge.

Details

We view the market price as overstating the favorite. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and virtually identical recent-match snapshots in the provided data, so there is no strong performance-based reason to give the home player a ~67% win probability (implied by 1.49). With no injury news, no clear surface advantage in the provided research, and no H2H presented, a near-even baseline is sensible. We conservatively estimate the away player’s true win probability at 46%, which makes the available away moneyline 2.53 offer positive expected value (0.46 * 2.53 - 1 = +0.164). The minimum fair decimal price for that probability is ~2.174, so current prices for the away side are attractive relative to our model.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent-match data in the provided research
• • Market heavily favors home at 1.49 despite no clear advantage in the supplied information
• • No injury or surface advantage information in sources to justify market gap