Highlights

• • Sabalenka implied by price: ~78.4% vs our estimate 72%
• • EV at current odds is negative (-0.081 per unit)

Pros

• + Hard surface suits Sabalenka's game
• + Clear market favorite — stable pricing and liquidity

Cons

• - Recent match records provided indicate poor form for both players, reducing certainty
• - Market margin leaves no value for Sabalenka at current odds

Details

We estimate Sabalenka's win probability at 72% based on surface fit (hard courts favor her power game) but tempered heavily by the provided recent form data showing poor results for both players. The market price (Sabalenka 1.276) implies ~78.4% — higher than our 72% estimate — so the bet carries negative expected value. With no clear injury or H2H data in the research to materially shift probability toward Sabalenka, we do not find value at the current moneyline.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Sabalenka (1.276) is ~78.4%
• • Provided recent-form data shows weak results for both players, lowering confidence in a heavy favorite price
• • Surface is outdoor hard, which nominally favors Sabalenka's power but does not justify the market margin given form