Highlights

• • Market implies ~70.8% for Sabalenka, but research indicates similar recent form between the two
• • At our estimated 36% win probability for Anisimova, current odds 3.07 offer positive EV

Pros

• + Underdog price (3.07) is sufficiently high relative to our estimated probability
• + Available data shows parity, supporting an argument that the favorite is overpriced

Cons

• - Research dataset lacks head-to-head, broader season context, and more granular match-level metrics
• - Small margin of positive EV and uncertain underlying information make the bet riskier

Details

We see the market pricing Aryna Sabalenka at 1.412 (implied ~70.8%) while Amanda Anisimova is available at 3.07 (~32.6%). The available player profiles show nearly identical recent records and results on hard courts, indicating parity rather than a dominant advantage for the favorite. Given that parity, we assign Anisimova a materially higher true chance than the market implies — we estimate her win probability at 36%. At that probability the current price of 3.07 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.36 * 3.07 - 1 ≈ +0.105). The market appears to overprice Sabalenka relative to the direct evidence in the provided research (similar win-loss and recent losses on hard), so a value wager on the underdog Anisimova is warranted at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Provided career/recent records show nearly identical poor form for both players
• • Surface is hard (outdoor) and both have recent hard-court matches in the research
• • Market strongly favors the home/favorite, creating potential mispricing given the parity in available data